Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins Picks and Predictions for Sunday March 1 2026
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The Vegas Golden Knights travel to take on the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA on Sunday, March 1, 2026. Puck drop is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET with national television coverage on TNT. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free NHL picks for more expert analysis and daily selections from across the league.
Golden Knights Look to Shine on the Road
The Golden Knights enter this matchup with a 28-17-14 overall record and a 14-9-7 mark away from home. Vegas has been competitive over its last five games, recently losing to Washington 3-2, while picking up wins over Los Angeles twice and Vancouver. They also dropped a tight 4-3 decision at Anaheim. This team has shown the ability to score in bunches but has also been involved in several close contests down the stretch.
Offensively, Vegas averages 3.38 goals per game while allowing 3.05 goals against per contest. They generate 28.8 shots per game and limit opponents to just 24.8 shots, which is an impressive differential. Special teams have been a strength, as the Golden Knights have tallied 43 power play goals and are converting at a 25.7% rate with the man advantage.
One of the most impressive aspects of this team is its discipline on the penalty kill. Vegas has allowed just 26 power play goals against and owns an 80.7% penalty kill percentage. They have not surrendered a single short-handed goal this season, which highlights their awareness and puck management on special teams.
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Penguins Defending Home Ice
Pittsburgh comes into Sunday’s matchup with a strong 30-15-12 overall record and a 14-8-7 mark at home. The Penguins have won three of their last five games, recently defeating New Jersey 4-1 and Buffalo 5-2. They also earned a high-scoring win over the Rangers, while suffering narrow losses to Ottawa and the Islanders.
The Penguins are averaging 3.42 goals per game while allowing 2.86 goals against. They fire 29.2 shots per contest and give up 27.3 shots. Pittsburgh has been excellent on the power play, scoring 39 goals with a 26.0% conversion rate, which slightly edges Vegas in efficiency.
Defensively, the Penguins have been particularly sharp on the penalty kill, operating at 84.5%. They have allowed 26 power play goals against, matching Vegas in that category, and like the Golden Knights, they have not conceded a short-handed goal. That strong special teams play gives them a reliable foundation in tight games.
Golden Knights vs Penguins Pick
Golden Knights vs Penguins Pick
- Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline
Pittsburgh holds the edge at home and has been slightly more consistent defensively, allowing fewer goals per game. While Vegas limits shots well, the Penguins’ power play efficiency combined with their 84.5% penalty kill gives them the special teams advantage. At PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh has shown it can close out games, and I expect them to capitalize on home ice in this one.
Golden Knights vs Penguins Total Pick
- Pick: Over (if total is set at 6.5)
Both teams average over 3.3 goals per game, and each has been involved in several high-scoring contests recently. I expect both power play units to create opportunities, and with this much offensive firepower on the ice, I lean toward the over. Even with solid penalty killing, the skill level on both sides should push this game past the number.
Final Score Prediction: Penguins 4, Golden Knights 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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