Vegas Golden Knights vs San Jose Sharks Picks & Predictions for Sunday, January 11, 2026
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The Vegas Golden Knights head to the SAP Center at San Jose to face the San Jose Sharks on Sunday, January 11, 2026, with puck drop set for 8:00 PM ET on NHL Network. Vegas enters at 19-11-12 (10-5-6 away), while San Jose comes in at 23-18-3 (13-8-3 home). These Pacific Division rivals are separated by just a point in the standings, but they’ve gotten here in very different ways. Get all of the best free NHL picks.
Vegas Golden Knights: Special Teams Edge and Better Defensive Profile
Vegas has been winning with structure. On the season, the Golden Knights are allowing just 24.9 shots against per game, which is a massive edge in this matchup, and they’ve paired that with strong special teams: 25.6% on the power play and 82.0% on the penalty kill.
Offensively, Vegas is producing 3.14 goals per game, and the top-end playmaking is obvious with Jack Eichel (45 points) driving the attack. If Vegas gets the goaltending they’ve been getting from Akira Schmid (2.51 GAA, .895 SV%), they match up well against a Sharks team that tends to give up volume and quality chances.
Injury report: Brandon Saad (OUT).
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San Jose Sharks: Big-Time Scoring, But Leaky Defensively
San Jose can absolutely fill the net — they’re averaging 3.12 goals per game, and Macklin Celebrini (70 points) has been a nightly engine for their offence. The concern is what happens behind that scoring.
The Sharks are allowing 3.49 goals against per game and giving up 31.2 shots against per game, which is a tough combo when you’re facing a Vegas team that can punish mistakes on the power play. In goal, Yaroslav Askarov (3.44 GAA, .895 SV%) has the save rate to steal a game, but the overall goals-against profile suggests San Jose often asks its goalies to survive too many high-danger looks.
They’re also banged up—especially on the blue line—which matters against a Vegas team that cycles well and generates second chances.
Injury report: John Klingberg (IR), Ty Dellandrea (OUT), Shakir Mukhamadullin (IR), Vincent Desharnais (IR), Logan Couture (IR).
Points To Consider
Vegas has already controlled this season series, leading 3-0, and that tracks with the matchup data: Vegas limits shots, while San Jose gives up a lot of them. If this game turns into special teams swing time, Vegas has a clear advantage with the PP/PK combo.
The Sharks’ path is pretty straightforward: lean on the Celebrini-led offence, keep the game open, and hope their goalie wins the “big saves” battle. That’s possible — but it’s a thinner margin against a Vegas team that’s more stable defensively.
Vegas Golden Knights vs San Jose Sharks Prediction
I’m backing the Vegas Golden Knights moneyline (-170). They’ve been the more reliable team defensively, they own the special teams edge, and they’ve already proven they can solve San Jose in this series.
On the total, I lean Over 6.5 (-115). San Jose games have a tendency to get loose (they allow 3.49 GAA), both teams are around 3.1 goals per game, and the Sharks’ injury situation on defense makes it harder to keep Vegas off the scoreboard.
Best Bet: Vegas Golden Knights ML (-170)
Total Lean: Over 6.5 (-115)
Final Score Prediction: Golden Knights 4, Sharks 3
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