Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators Picks and Predictions for Thursday, January 1, 2026
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The Washington Capitals (21-14-5, 9-7-3 away) head to the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON to face the Ottawa Senators (18-15-5, 8-7-3 home) at 1:00 PM on ESPN+. Make sure you are ready for all the NHL action with our free NHL picks.
Washington’s Road-Tested Attack
Washington is scoring 3.18 goals per game while allowing 2.74, and they’re averaging 29.3 shots for with 27.7 against. Special teams haven’t been their calling card (power play 15.2%, penalty kill 76.6%), but the overall profile is steady because they defend well and don’t need chaos to win. In their last five, the Caps are 2-3, with results of W 6-3 vs NYR, L 5-3 @ FLA, W 4-3 OT @ NJ, L 7-3 vs NYR, and L 3-2 OT @ DET.
In net, Washington’s top option on your sheet is L. Thompson (15-10-3, 2 SO, 2.33 GAA, .915 SV%), with C. Lindgren (6-4-2, 1 SO, 3.07 GAA, .887 SV%) behind him. Based on these numbers alone, Thompson is clearly the stabiliser — especially in a road spot where one rough stretch can tilt everything.
On the injury front, Washington lists Cole Hutson (D) as Day-To-Day with an estimated return date of Jan 1, so availability is uncertain but it’s not framed as a long-term absence.
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Ottawa’s Offence-First Home Profile
Ottawa is producing 3.21 goals per game but allowing 3.26, so their games naturally lean more volatile. They average 27.9 shots for and allow 25.5, and their power play sits at a strong 25.0% — but that’s paired with a vulnerable 71.4% penalty kill, which can swing momentum quickly if they take a couple of early minors. The Senators are also 2-3 in their last five: L 4-1 vs CBJ, L 7-5 @ TOR, L 3-2 OT vs BUF, W 6-2 @ BOS, and W 6-4 vs CHI.
Ottawa’s listed goalies are L. Ullmark (14-8-5, 1 SO, 2.95 GAA, .881 SV%) and L. Merilainen (4-7-0, 3.51 GAA, .869 SV%). However, your injury report shows Ullmark is OUT (Jan 5), which matters hugely — because if Ottawa can’t lean on its primary starter, the margin for error shrinks in a matchup priced close to a pick’em.
Ottawa also lists Lars Eller (C) on IR (Jan 7), so that’s another availability hit in their forward group.
Points To Consider
The headline swing factor here is the crease. Washington’s best available numbers belong to Thompson (.915 SV%, 2.33 GAA), and Ottawa’s goaltending situation is complicated by Ullmark being OUT, which raises the risk of a leaky segment that flips the game even if Ottawa’s skaters generate chances.
Special teams are the other pivot point. Ottawa’s power play is clearly the sharper unit (25.0%), but their penalty kill (71.4%) is the soft underbelly. If this turns into a whistle-heavy afternoon, the game script becomes less predictable — and totals become far more sensitive.
Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators Prediction
I’m taking Washington +120 (Moneyline) because the price is appealing in a matchup where Washington’s defensive profile (2.74 GAA) and top listed goaltending numbers give them a steadier base — and Ottawa’s Ullmark OUT note adds extra uncertainty on the home side.
On the puck line, I’m also backing Washington +1.5 (-218). It’s not a juicy payout, but it fits how these teams profile: Washington defends well, and Ottawa’s results show plenty of high-scoring, one-possession style games (including OT outcomes in their last five).
For the total, I’m leaning Over 5.5 (-135). Both teams are above 3.1 goals per game, and Ottawa’s defensive number (3.26 GAA) plus the unsettled goaltending situation gives me a path to 6 goals even if Washington plays a controlled road game. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Capitals with the Fliff promo code. The best sportsbooks are the best way to go when you are betting on the Senators. Make sure when you place your Senators vs Capitals bet you are using the bet365 bonus code.
Final Score Prediction: Capitals 4, Senators 2
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