Eight of the last nine. That's how many Capitals night games at Capital One Arena have gone over the total, and I'm not going against that run with Logan Thompson stopping .898 in the Washington net.
The bottom line here is the Caps score and the Caps give it up. They're putting up 3.38 a game and allowing 3.23, so their games are averaging around six and a half goals, and we only need six. Get three from each side and we cash.
Washington is coming off a 5-1 beating from Minnesota on Sunday. One goal on 27 shots. That's a team that comes out flying at home with something to prove, and Alex Tuch (10 goals) and Dylan Strome (12 points) aren't going quiet two nights in a row. Somebody in that room heard about it Monday, trust me.
Dallas is a defence-first team, always has been. Fewest shots against in the league at 22.3, 2.14 goals against. I get it. I get it. With that said, a lot of that number is Jake Oettinger stopping .921 when he's a .910 goalie over his career, and that comes back to earth at some point. The Stars also have a 21.9% power play and Mikko Rantanen with 17 points, going up against a Caps penalty kill sitting at 77.3%. Dallas doesn't need to light it up here. Two or three gets it done.
The total opened 5.5 and got bumped to 6 at some books, so the early money agrees with us. If you can still get 5.5, grab it now, it won't be there later. At 6, I'm staying away. I see a 4-3 game here either way, and 4-2 gets there too.
Notes: This is a lean, not a max play. The last five Dallas road games all went under, and Oettinger is 6-0 with a .958 save percentage against Washington in his career. Neither starter is confirmed yet. If Casey DeSmith goes for Dallas, I like this a lot more.
The Play: Over 5.5 (-120)
