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Washington Commanders Over/Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins **THIS IS A 4% CLIENT RELEASE PLAY** 11-3 L-14 FREE PLAYS

4% Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 Regular Season Wins (-115) **Line already moved from +105 to -115**

UPDATE 8/31 11:30 AM EST: Watch my YouTube Video for a full breakdown of this play:

UPDATE 8/9 12:30 PM EST: Washington just lost their top OL LT Tunsil for probably the season, this line could move a little, get it in!

Washington went 5-12 last year, and I’m not buying a three-win jump.

Jayden Daniels played only 7 games in 2025 and dealt with a knee sprain, hamstring injury and dislocated elbow. He also led all NFL quarterbacks with 8.3 rushing attempts per game. After 148 carries as a rookie, his style continues to expose him to significantly more contact than the average QB. Durability has to be priced into this number.

Washington also replaced both coordinators. David Blough takes over the offense and Daronte Jones takes over the defense, and both will be first-time NFL play callers.

They’ve added some names on defense, but per PFF, only 2 projected defensive starters carry grades over 70. This was a bad defense last year, and I’m not convinced the makeover fixes it overnight.

They also have only 8 true home games, with the Colts “home” game being played in London, and they open @ Philadelphia and @ Dallas.

Looking at the first 11 games, I project Washington to be favored in only 1 or 2 of them.

I don’t need Washington to be bad.

7-10 cashes this ticket.

Coming off 5 wins, with Daniels’ injury history and rushing workload, two first-time play callers, a questionable defense and this schedule, 7.5 is too high.

David Montgomery OVER 7.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+116):

The Houston Texans traded an offensive lineman and two draft picks for David Montgomery and followed that up by upgrading his contract. Montgomery has cleared this line in each of his last three seasons (8, 12 & 13) while playing with the Detroit Lions despite splitting carries with the highest paid running back in the league in Jahmyr Gibbs. Joe Mixon is out of the picture, and he handled 89% of the RB carries in 9/14 starts last season including two games with 100% of the workload. Woody Marks is the only man standing in the way and he wasn't overly impressive in his rookie campaign. The Texans are favored to win the AFC South, and they have an elite defense that will lead to favorable game scripts where Monty will see carries while protecting the lead.

*Playable at -105 or better

Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.

Rob Finished #1 last season in CFB and is the ONLY 2 Time Overall Football Champ on the Network

The 2026 NY. Jets Team Preview and Totals Wins Prediction

The 2026 Jets are now in their second season under Coach Aaron Glenn and after a dismal 3-14 record. The Jets made several upgrades on both sides of the ball. Most Notably, they bring back aging former Jet Quarterback Geno Smith. While he is not the ideal guy for this team which is on the younger side, Geno can Sling it and while he may wind up throwing as many picks as Touchdowns the Jets should find the end zone more often and move the ball. They have an Improving offensive line and are bringing back starting Running back Breece Hall and star Wide out Garrett Wilson who appears healthy after an injury that saw him miss most of the season last year. The Jets also drafted the ultra athletic Tight end Kenyon Sadiq who can lineup in the slot and get down field and give the Jets a whole different look. Sadiq should be ready for opening day despite an early injury They also drafted a solid Wide out in Omar Cooper who will be a big threat both deep and on the tertiary routes. On Defense the Jets added perhaps the best player in the draft in David Bailey who is a solid edge rusher and has a high motor. He should make an immediate impact along with a solid free agent signing in Tvondre Sweat who will stabilize the defensive line. The Jets brough back Demario Davis as well as Star Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jarvis Brownlee the the defensive backfield. This defense should be much better than expected and with the Jets having a decent offense they should not be out on the field all day like years past. The Jets will likely go Over the 5.5 win total this year as they have made several changes and should benefit from playing the 5th easiest schedule this year. Last season they were last in creating turnovers and with the defensive upgrades this season they will be far better off this season. Finally, The Patriots will likely regress a bit off the big bounce back season and Miami is not expected to be very good this year, so the Jets may get some rare divisional wins, even at 2-4 in divisional play they could get 6+ wins. While we wont go as far as a Playoff spot the Jets could get 7+ wins this season. Gl this season Rob Vinciletti

The Browns have beaten Jacksonville three straight times. However, their last meeting was in 2024. Jacksonville was the much better team last season and is expected to be again this year. The Jaguars were 13-4 last regular season and 12-4-1 against the spread. (Remember, they were just 4-13 in 2024.) The Browns were 5-12 on the season, 8-9 ATS. The Jags were 10-2 against AFC teams. The Browns were 2-10. This year, the Jags are projected to win 8.5 to 9.5 games while the Browns are expected to win 5.5 to 6.5. The Jags have the majority of their offensive starters back. The Jags also had the best run defense in the NFL last season, allowing an average of only 85.2 rushing yards per game. They were the only team in the league to hold opponents under 90 yards on the ground. The Browns have a new coach and numerous question marks. They may improve this year but it's unlikely to happen immediately. I've got the Jags winning by double-digits.