Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

The 1st place Cleveland Browns, that doesn't sound right does it. Well the 5-2 Browns travel to the Steel City to take on their rival the 5-2 Pittsburgh Steelers. Cleveland has not swept Pittsburgh since 2003 but they have a chance today. DeShawn Watson has led the Browns to multiple 4th quarter comebacks and Cleveland has taken advantage of a soft schedule. I look for a tightly contested game between these two today with the points being the play.

PSP Data Driven play on Bucs.

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. The Falcons are 1-3 in their last 4 games. The Bucs are 3-1 in their last 4 games.

Ricky's play on KC.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Chiefs are 5-1 in their last 6 games.

- The Chiefs are 6-4 in the last 10 head to head meetings.

- The Chiefs are 3-1 in their last 4 road games.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

Baker Mayfield didn't need to do a lot in his return to active duty last Sunday for the Bucs as the Panthers self-destructed in Charlotte, necessitating only 64 YP in Tampa Bay's 43-13 romp. Expect more production as needed from Mayfield this afternoon at Raymond James.

Note four of the last five Bucs meetings vs. the Falcons also have landed "over" while scorelines have reached at least 57 points, even as injuries have marked several of those clashes in recent years. Now, almost all hands are on deck, and it's a different Atlanta when Michael Penix is at the controls of the offense, scoring a robust 32 ppg across the last five since he returned to adctive duty. Each of those last five Atlanta games went "over" as well (assuming you took the "over" last week vs. the 49ers before a late move upward). Play Falcons-Bucs "Over"

Vikings vs Lions NFL Free Pick

The Angle(s): The unbeaten Minnesota Vikings are getting points against a team they've beaten outright twice as big underdogs last season, and I think the market is still underrating them. Brian Flores' defense has been the best in football, allowing a league-low 12.3 points per game and sitting tied for the league lead in sacks.

The Detroit Lions' defense is allowing 27.5 points per game. Minnesota is also perfect on the road this season and has covered seven of its last 10 road games. In a divisional game that should come down to a field goal, I'll take the points with the better defense.

The Bet: Vikings ATS (3%).

The NFL Comp play for Sunday is on the Las Vegas Raiders plus the point against the Jets. The Raiders are fading fast at 3-4 and on a 4 game losing streak. Rob notes that week 8 teams that started 3-0 and have not won since have covered every time since 2000. The Raiders draw the Jets who lost here to the winless Dolphins last week and who have a coach that is unsure which teams gets the ball coming out of the half and when to decline a penalty on 3rd down. The Jets are banged up on the defensive front and are also fading fast. Look for the Raiders to get this one. GL Rob V-

Jacksonville has been absolutely dominant at home, and I really like the Jaguars laying 10 points against an Indianapolis team that appears to be heading in the wrong direction. The Jaguars have won their last six games at EverBank Stadium by at least 17 points, outscoring opponents by an incredible 161 points during that stretch. They're also coming off a bye week, giving them additional time to prepare for a struggling Colts team that has dropped three straight games. Indianapolis managed just 10 points in last week's 16-10 loss to Minnesota, and its offense is averaging only 298.0 total yards per game, ranking 25th in the NFL. Things won't get any easier against a Jacksonville defense surrendering just 17.3 points per contest, ranking third in the league. The Jaguars have been particularly outstanding against the run, allowing a league-low 72.2 yards per game, which should force Indianapolis into uncomfortable passing situations. The Colts have also struggled defensively, surrendering 25.7 points per game, while Jacksonville is averaging 25.7 points and 347.7 total yards. Indianapolis has also traded away two important veterans, Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner, creating additional concerns on both sides of the football. The historical trends strongly favor Jacksonville, which is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight divisional home games. The Jaguars have also beaten Indianapolis 11 consecutive times at home. With Jacksonville well-rested, holding a significant defensive advantage, and facing a struggling opponent, I expect another convincing home victory. Jacksonville -10 is the play.

Minnesota is a perfect 6-0 on the season, but they’ve played an absolutely atrocious schedule.  The Vikings have also been terrible on offense despite winning; averaging just 20.8 points per game on a weak 4.8 yards per play.  Minnesota is now playing in a hostile environment against a potent offensive team.  They’ll need to trade points here, but they don’t have an offense to do that.  Detroit will be playing their 2nd straight home game after a bye, so this is a terrific scheduling spot for them.  Minnesota loves to blitz, but QB Jared Goff has been one of the most efficient passers when under pressure in his career.  Lay the points with the home team in this game on Sunday afternoon.

Play LIONS (-).

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Good to: Under 43.5 at −115.

Two profitable league-wide systems support the Under, each addressing how the posted total compares with previous scoring expectations.

The first identifies regular-season home games with totals no higher than 53 in which the teams’ combined season scoring and points-allowed averages exceed twice the posted total by at least 2.9 points, subject to additional situational exclusions. Despite that apparent offensive support, qualifying games have gone 1,745-1,381-67 to the Under, earning 225.9 units. Atlanta–Tampa Bay qualifies.

The second identifies games from Week 6 onward with totals below 46.5 when a qualifying team’s previous four posted totals averaged at least 47.5. It also excludes situations in which the teams’ previous games combined to finish too far below their totals. That angle is 248-148-8 to the Under, producing 85.2 units and a 19.6% ROI. The lower current total has historically been more informative than the higher expectations surrounding those teams’ recent games.

Tampa Bay’s personnel situation adds support. Emeka Egbuka’s absence removes a receiving option, while right tackle Luke Goedeke’s questionable status creates a potential protection problem. Additional blocking help from a tight end or running back would leave fewer receivers immediately available in routes and could encourage shorter throws.

The Buccaneers have also demonstrated an ability to control possession through their ground game. Their earlier victory over Dallas included 241 rushing yards and more than 39 minutes of possession. Sustained rushing drives would reduce opportunities for both offenses, particularly if Tampa Bay establishes a lead.

The supplied market moved from 46.5 to 43.5, so some value has already disappeared. At 43.5, however, the two qualifying historical angles and Tampa Bay’s receiving and protection concerns still support the Under.

I'm either going to look like an absolute dummy or brilliant genius with this pick. I have the utmost confidence it will be the latter. There's no question that New England is the far better team on paper. However, NFL teams that are far better than their opponents don't always win and more importantly cover as a sizable favorite. New England is coming off a 30-24 loss in their previous game on the Thursday night national televised contest. That loss dropped their season record to 4-3. Miami is coming off their first win of the season 28-25 over the Jets as a 3.5-point road underdog. They've now played 3 very completive games in a row. Prior to last week's win they lost their previous 2 games to Cincinnati (4-2) by 7 and by 5 at Minnesota (6-0). I'm not going to go out on a limb and call for an outright upset but I wouldn't be totally shocked if it occurred. But I like "The Fish" to say inside this number as a division home underdog.

Bet the Miami Dolphins as a point-spread home underdog of +6.0 or higher.

I’m backing Atlanta in this matchup between two teams coming off big wins. Tampa Bay dominated Carolina, but the Falcons’ 29–20 victory over previously unbeaten San Francisco was the more impressive performance. Michael Penix Jr. threw three touchdown passes, while Atlanta’s defense forced four turnovers to hand the 49ers their first loss of the season.

The Falcons have played much better since Penix returned at quarterback, going 3–2 in his starts. Both losses were one-score games, including one in overtime. That stretch gives me confidence that Atlanta’s improvement goes beyond last week’s headline-grabbing upset.

Tampa Bay got Baker Mayfield back against Carolina, but his return wasn’t the driving force behind the victory. Mayfield attempted just 11 passes, completing seven for 64 yards and a touchdown. The Buccaneers won by controlling the line of scrimmage, piling up 258 rushing yards on 49 carries against one of the league’s weaker run defenses.

I don’t expect that formula to work nearly as well against Atlanta. The Falcons have held five of their seven opponents to 98 rushing yards or fewer, giving them a strong foundation to make Tampa Bay play a different style of game. If the Buccaneers cannot establish the run, Mayfield will have to generate more offense through the air—and even before his injury, he had not thrown for more than 200 yards in a game this season.

On the other side, I don’t believe Tampa Bay’s defense will consistently win the line-of-scrimmage battle and shut down Atlanta’s rushing attack. That should give the Falcons a better opportunity to maintain offensive balance rather than asking Penix to carry the entire load.

Both teams enter with momentum, but Atlanta looks like the more complete team. The Falcons’ run defense can take away the foundation of Tampa Bay’s offense, while their own balance gives them more ways to win. I’m riding with Atlanta.

ATLANTA 24-20

Pittsburgh Steelers (ML) | Good until -205.

I like the Steelers very much this weekend. The only thing that's causing the rating to go down on this bet would be the price. Laying -186 on any team is quite steep. But, it's very much worth it. The Steelers have won ATS in back to back seasons in the week before a bye. Go with Pittsburgh.

Don't miss Bryan Power's 4% BEST BET for NFL Week 8!

2% ML Parlay - New England (4:25 ET) & Washington (8:20 ET): This is a two-team money line parlay. Normally, in the NFL, I go with teaser bets. But taking the Patriots down from -7 to -1 and the Commanders from -6 to a Pick doesn’t exactly qualify as your standard “Wong Teaser.” I did some “price shopping” and the 2-team ML parlay option is only -123 (at DK) whereas putting the two teams in a 6-point tease is -135. So a little bit cheaper on the juice and we “only” need the Patriots and Commanders to both win straight up. I feel comfortable with that given NFL teams playing with a rest advantage have gone 23-8 SU as well as 22-8-1 ATS this season.

New England has a rest edge as they played last Thursday. It was a tough 30-24 loss in Chicago as the Patriots finished with a 7.8 to 6.3 yards per play advantage. The Pats had won three in a row before losing on TNF. I fully expect them to bounce back here against a bad Miami team that was fortunate to pick up its first win of the season last week. The Dolphins had the benefit of coming off a bye when they faced the Jets last Sunday. They were outgained 7.3 to 5.8 on yards per play basis. It would obviously be a shock to see Miami win B2B games. New England is a perfect 16-0 SU when favored by three or more points with QB Drake Maye starting.

Washington gets to enjoy one of the bigger rest edges a team can have over its opponent. The Commanders are coming off their bye, which was very much needed after a 1-4-1 SU start to the season. They should have beaten the Giants in the game they tied. As bad as things may look in our Nation’s Capital, it’s going much worse in the City of Brotherly Love where the Eagles are coming off one of their worst defensive performances in recent history on Monday night (lost 38-21 to Dallas). While Washington is off a bye, Philly is on a short week. Last week’s defensive effort isn’t the only problem for the Eagles. The offense leads the league in three-and-outs (37% of drives) by a wide margin. With Jalen Hurts out for the season, it will be Tanner McKee at QB for the foreseeable future. Not only is Washington rested and playing with revenge for a 24-22 loss in Week 1, HC Dan Quinn badly needs this game if he’d like to stay employed. 2% ML Parlay - New England and Washington (Play to -135)

Good to OV35.5 -120

Take Cleveland (#255)

The “Daily Double’ video below offers my take for Lions - Vikings and Steelers - Browns in Week 8 NFL action on Sunday.  Here’s a brief write-up for Cleveland - Pittsburgh.

The Steelers are coming back from Europe with no rest, a ‘negative expectation’ betting situation so far this season to the tune of 0-fer 2026.  The Steelers also rank #29 in red zone touchdown percentage - not where I want my favorites. Meanwhile, that Browns defense has been just fine without Myles Garrett — they lead the NFL In tackles for loss and Rank #6 in sacks, with eleven different defenders notching at least one.  The Steelers just faced Indy, Tampa and New Orleans over the last three weeks, taking a big step up in defensive class here.  Too many points!  Take the Browns

Seagrave is on a solid 25-19 (57%) run with his posted Free Picks since August 27th!

Next Winner HERE:

Michael Penix Jr. Passing Yards Under 229.5 (-114):

Michael Penix Jr has fallen short of this line in 3 of his last 4 games while just creeping past this number with 240 passing yards in his lone over. Now he draws a brutal matchup against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary that has ranked 2nd in opponent drop back EPA and 8th in opponent drop back success rate. Tampa Bay just crushed the Carolina Panthers in a 43-13 victory where they held Bryce Young to a messily 163 passing yards. We have also seen multiple opposing quarterbacks fall well short of their respective passing yard totals including Jordan Love (197), Kyler Murray (168) and Joe Burrow (254). The Buccaneers grade out as the 4th best collection of cornerbacks in the league at defending pass catchers so the Falcons may find it much easier to move the ball on the ground.

*Playable at 225.5 or better

(239) Minnesota Vikings at (240) Detroit Lions: Spread

4% Detroit Lions -3.0 (-120) **36-22-2 LAST-60 NFL 4% PLAYS & 15-8 LAST-23 FREE PLAYS / THIS IS A 4% CLIENT RELEASE PLAY**

Here is my full video breakdown and analysis on YouTube:

If you can’t see the link, search YouTube for: The Mad Russian Wagertalk

This is a HUGE DOUBLE REVENGE spot for Dan Campbell and the Lions. Minnesota swept Detroit last season, including a humiliating 23-10 Christmas Day defeat that eliminated the Lions from playoff contention. The Vikings sacked Jared Goff 10 TIMES in those 2 meetings, and Detroit committed 6 turnovers in the Christmas loss. You can bet Campbell and Goff haven't forgotten! Now the last undefeated team in football comes into Ford Field, where Detroit is 3-0 this season, with enormous NFC North implications.

Minnesota's 6-0 record is impressive, but its offense is producing HISTORICALLY BAD numbers for an undefeated team. The Vikings have scored just 9 OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS in 6 games, including only 4 in their last 5 WINS! Here's the incredible part: Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs has scored 9 touchdowns BY HIMSELF! That's right, 1 Detroit player has scored as many touchdowns as Minnesota's ENTIRE OFFENSE. The Vikings have been surviving behind an outstanding defense and a +7 turnover differential, but their first 6 opponents have a combined 16-25 record. They're stepping WAY UP in competition Sunday.

This is where STYLES MAKE FIGHTS! Minnesota's defense leads the NFL in blitz rate at an astonishing 70.8%, but Detroit has the perfect quarterback to attack that approach. Goff has a 123.3 passer rating against the blitz this season, completing 70% of his passes with 6 TDs and ZERO interceptions! Overall, Goff has thrown 14 TDs without a single pick, while Detroit averages 30.7 points per game. Minnesota's defense is legitimate, allowing just 12.3 points per game, but this is easily its toughest offensive test of the season.

Don't let Detroit's narrow 20-17 win over Green Bay last Sunday fool you. The Lions OUTGAINED the Packers 415-324, recorded 26 first downs, and moved the football consistently. Two lost fumbles kept Green Bay in that game. Detroit has scored at least 20 points in EVERY game this season and 30+ in 4 of its 6 contests. If the Lions protect the football, this offense is capable of putting Minnesota in an uncomfortable position where its defense can no longer carry the team.

Minnesota also has concerns up front. Starting LG Donovan Jackson is on IR, blocking TE Josh Oliver is unavailable, and Aaron Jones has been dealing with a knee injury. Kyler Murray has already taken 12 sacks in just 4 starts and hasn't thrown for 250 yards in ANY of them. Now he faces Aidan Hutchinson, who leads NFL edge rushers with 42 pressures, and Alim McNeill, who has another 29 from the interior. If Detroit jumps ahead and forces Murray into obvious passing situations, I LOVE the Lions' chances to control this game. Detroit has the superior offense, home field, DOUBLE REVENGE motivation, and a terrific schematic matchup against Minnesota's aggressive defense. Give me DETROIT -3 to hand Minnesota its 1st loss of the season!

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The #1 Overall Capper on the site has an NFL Free Pick WINNER for you here on Sunday

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Be sure to get Sean's TOP 5% Play here on Sunday in NFL Action.

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Take the LA Rams (#258)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below offers my take on the Rams – Chargers and the Chiefs – Broncos on Sunday.  Here’s a brief write-up for LA vs LA.

There’s a school of thought out there comparing this week’s Chargers with last week’s Dolphins – winless teams coming off a bye -- expecting the Bolts to hang tough.  But the Dolphins got to face the Jets; the Chargers have to step up in class vs the Rams, and the Rams aren’t looking past anybody right now, still a sub .500 squad.  And the Chargers problems are fundamental – injuries all over their offensive line AND a receiving corps devoid of playmakers.  Lay the points!  Take the Rams.

Take Washington (#264)

Here’s one of the lessons I’ve learned over my 29 years betting football full time in Las Vegas.  When a team thought they were going to be competing for championshps and instead they’re competing for last place, it takes a long time for the pointspread to catch up to how bad they actually are!  Philadelphia was built to win now; instead they’re an injury riddled mess playing on a short week: ‘bet-against’ only.  A rested Commanders team is worth laying less than a touchdown with here!  Take the Commanders.

New England won-and-covered both meetings last season with both of those contests going over the total. Prior to last year's sweep, the Dolphins had won seven of the previous eight meetings in this AFC East matchup. The Patriots had a couple extra days to prep for this one after falling in Chicago last Thursday. That 30-24 defeat snapped a three-game winning streak. New England's last four games have all gone over the total. Miami snapped its six-game losing streak with a 28-25 win over the Jets last week. The Dolphins were coming off their bye week, and first-year head coach Jeff Hafley had to like what he saw from his struggling squad coming out of the break. After averaging 4.75 rushing attempts through the Dolphins' first four games, Miami is letting Malik Willis run a bit more. Willis has generated eight rushing attempts in each of the last two games, averaging 55.5 yards on the ground against the Bengals and Jets with a rushing touchdown in each game. With this game being at 4:25pm ET on Sunday afternoon, it offers a little bit of a unique look on Miami's win over the Jets last week. New York hosts the Raiders at 1pm ET with Las Vegas on a four-game losing streak. The Raiders have gotten crushed in their last four trips to the Eastern Time Zone. If the Jets beat the Raiders, then yeah, Miami can puff its chest out a little bit for that win last week and it gives them a little bit of legitimacy. If the Jets lose to the Raiders, then unfortunately for the Dolphins, that win last week is largely going to be forgotten because New York is going to be widely viewed as a bottom-5 (probably lower) team in the league. We fall on that side of the divide, and while Miami deserves props for breaking its winless streak, it probably came against the worst-coached team in the league. We have this game lined closer to double digits and we are comfortable laying the points with New England on the road. Play New England Patriots