Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

Take Cincinnati – Pittsburgh UNDER (#463-464)

The Steelers are a ‘dead nuts’ Under team right now.  They’re playing at a slow pace with Aaron Rodgers burning clock between snaps.  The passing game has lacked any sort of explosiveness; a big part of the reason why Pittsburgh has scored a grand total of one touchdown in 25 drives through the first two games of the season.  Their offensive line isn’t protecting Rodgers or blowing open holes for the running backs.  Cincinnati, too, has been a ‘defensive mindset’ team through the first two weeks of the campaign; a revitalized unit that has legitimately been upgraded from recent seasons.  Expect time consuming drives, defense and field goals throughout.  Take the UNDER.

A lot of what came out of Week 1 falls into overreaction territory, but Likely's role in this offense isn't one of them. He caught all 8 of his targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns in his Giants debut, tied for the top tight end performance in the league that week, and he ran the vast majority of his routes lined up out wide rather than in-line, which keeps him matched up against linebackers and nickel corners instead of true tight end defenders. That's not a role that gets scaled back after one good week, that's a coordinator who found something that works and is going to keep using it.

The spread matters here too. The Giants are sitting as touchdown underdogs tonight, and I expect them to be playing from behind for stretches of this game. When New York needs to throw to keep pace, Dart's volume goes up across the board, and Likely has already established himself as the number two option in that passing game behind Nabers. A game script that leans pass-heavy plays directly into more targets for Likely, and at plus money for a number this low relative to what he just did, this is a play I like.

Blake Corum Rushing Yards Over 47.5 (-113):

Blake Corum shined in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers as he recorded 10 rushing attempts for 54 yards despite playing only 23% of the offensive snaps. I fully expect an uptick in those snaps as both head coach Sean McVay and offensive coordinator Nate Scheelhaase were very complimentary of Corum heading into Week 2. The game script was also against Corum in Week 1 with Los Angeles trailing for the entire game but this week the Rams are near touchdown favorites. The New York Giants run defense looked much better, but they dominated the time of possession against Dallas while holding the ball for 36:40 and the Cowboys only had 2 possessions in the 2nd half while trailing. Corum was much more efficient back for Los Angeles as Kyren Williams averaged only 3.7 yards per carry and he should more opportunities on Monday night.

*Playable at 49.5 or better

This is a free play on LAR.

On Friday I published a video breaking down the Cowboys game against Washington. In the video I mentioned the viral Twitter post where a guy claimed George Pickens was tipping off the Giants defense to pass plays, because he was leaving out his mouthpiece on run plays. I was attacked in the comments section, with the suggestion that I was disseminating misinformation. Now I can't speak to the validity of the theory, but I can tell you that it was widely circulated in mainstream media, and when Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer was asked about it by reporters he said he would be looking into it. Whether or not the Giants had help shutting down Dak, I think what is more significant is that the Cowboys don't have an effective run game. Only the Bengals allowed more rush yards than the Giants last year, as New York allowed opponents to average over 145 rush yards per game. With injury concerns in the receiving corps, I expect the Rams to run the ball here and enjoy plenty of success doing so.

GL,

Jesse Schule

PSP Data Driven play on Under.

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Our models suggest that the value is on the Under. The Under is 3-1 in the Rams last 4 games. The Under is 2-0 in the Rams  last 2 home games.

This is a free play on Blake Corum ATTD.

The Giants allowed over 145 rushing yards per game last season, only the Bengals allowed more. Of course they didn't have any trouble shutting down the Cowboys run game in Week 1 at home, but Dallas is a pass first offense. The Rams aren't exactly built to be a run first offense, but with injuries at WR, they may lean a bit more on their RBs. The rumors in the off-season suggested that Corum would play a bigger role this season, and that came to fruition in the Australia game. He had 10 carries for 54 yards in the loss. I expect him to get 10-15 carries here in this game, and I can't pass up on a +money bet on him to score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

FREE PICK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ATS) | Good until +0.5.

Minnesota has showed great defense through two weeks, leading to it's 2-0 start to the season. Scoring just nine points last week is nothing too exciting though. Tampa might be 0-2 this season. But, it's probably the best winless team remaining. Mayfield is still a very solid QB and with weapons at all of the skill positions, I'm anticipating a stronger performance. At home and getting points in a big game, go with the Bucs.