Stamps +3...(3%) Shop for BEST number. Still one or two 3.5 available, but also seeing 2.5 popping up.
Calgary blew an 18-point lead against Edmonton on Labour Day, but I’m not ready to write off the Stampeders because of how that game ended.
In fact, I think the market has overreacted.
Calgary led 25-7 and was in control for much of the afternoon before Edmonton exploded late, scoring the final 24 points to steal a 38-28 victory. Edmonton deserves credit for the comeback, but the final score doesn’t tell the entire story.
The betting market has made a significant adjustment since then.
Edmonton opened as high as a 4.5-point favourite before correcting to -3.5, and the consensus number has now moved to Edmonton -3. I’ve even seen -2.5 starting to pop up.
That movement is important because I’m going to play Calgary +3.
I would have preferred to grab the +3.5, and that extra half-point matters in a game like this. With the market moving toward -3, however, I’m reducing the confidence and making this a 3% play rather than a larger position.
The underlying handicap hasn’t changed.
Calgary is much healthier heading into the rematch. Vernon Adams Jr. is back, Dedrick Mills has returned, and Rene Paredes is back in the lineup. This is still the CFL’s highest-scoring offence at 36.2 points per game, while Calgary ranks third in the league in rushing.
I don’t need Calgary to win this game. I need them to stay within a field goal.
Edmonton is 9-3 and deserves plenty of respect, but the Elks were down 25-7 in this matchup just five days ago. I’m not willing to make Edmonton a four-point better team simply because they pulled off an incredible comeback.
The number has moved, so the value has been reduced. That’s why this is only a 3% play.
But at +3, I still believe Calgary is getting enough points to make this a worthwhile wager.
I’ve seen +2.5 starting to show up, so shop around and get the +3 while it’s still available.
Calgary +3 is the play.
