Joe Duffy Picks, Betting Predictions, and Capper Bio

This is the most interesting regression play of the entire Saturday card, but there is enough conflicting evidence to keep it on the free card.

Tampa Bay finished with an extraordinary +14.61 Luck Rating, the highest in baseball. New York was only +0.95. That produces approximately a 13.7-game Luck Gap toward the Yankees. At a full-season sample size, that's enormous.

There is also value in getting New York as an underdog. Our official outlaw line opened around Yankees +114/Rays -134, and the market has remained in that general neighborhood rather than producing a major move against New York.

The concern is the pitching matchup. Drew Rasmussen's report card is outstanding: 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He has been especially effective against New York, posting a 1.81 ERA and 0.86 WHIP across 11 career appearances. In his most recent start at Yankee Stadium, he carried a no-hitter into the seventh and struck out 11.

Gerrit Cole counters with a 3.61 ERA for the season, but his Rays-specific report card is considerably better: a 2.50 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay this year. He also brings a strong postseason résumé.

New York enters on a four-game winning streak and scored nine runs in each of its two Wild Card victories.

The enormous Luck Gap makes +115 attractive enough for a free play, but Rasmussen keeps it on the free card.

Play Yankees +110 or better.

⚾ FREE PLAY — YANKEES/RAYS UNDER 7 — 6:30 ET

Our top organic handicapper is on UNDER 7 and recommends it through -120.

The starting-pitcher report cards strongly support the position. Rasmussen finished with a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .543 OPS. His walk rate was just 4.8%, making free baserunners extremely difficult to come by.

Cole has a 2.50 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay this season and a 2.93 ERA across 12 postseason starts as a Yankee.

Rasmussen's career performance against New York is particularly impressive: 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 11 appearances.

Tampa Bay's bullpen provides another layer of support behind Rasmussen. That becomes particularly important in a playoff opener where both managers can aggressively deploy rested relievers.

The price has become the issue. Some books have already dropped from 7 to 6.5, and we do not want to chase the move.

Play UNDER 7 to -120. At 6.5, pass.

🏈 FREE PLAY — ARMY/LOUISIANA TECH OVER 47.5 — 7:30 ET

A respected sharp played OVER 44.5 with a projection around 53, while another independent model lands around 50.

Army's 21-17 victory over Temple was deceptive. Temple outgained Army 459-315, indicating considerably more offensive opportunity than the final score reflected.

Louisiana Tech brings pace and strong finishing-drive production, giving the game a second path to scoring.

The problem is the number. Approximately three points have disappeared from the original entry. That's meaningful movement on a total in this range and keeps it on the free card.

Play to: OVER 47.5. Pass at 49.

Free play because of the substantial moneyline price.

Jacob Misiorowski provides Milwaukee with the clearest starting-pitching advantage on the late card. He finished the season with a 2.12 xERA and 2.29 xFIP and closed with 13 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings over his final three outings.

His previous matchup with San Diego was dominant: seven innings with 10 strikeouts. He also recorded at least eight strikeouts in 19 of 30 starts.

San Diego's projected starting options do not offer a comparable report card. Milwaukee therefore owns a meaningful starting-pitching advantage without needing to manufacture a case from the relatively small Luck Gap.

The problem is price. Our official outlaw line was approximately Milwaukee -226, and the current market has actually improved materially for Brewers bettors, with -200 to -205 available in spots. That's favorable line movement from our perspective, but this is still an expensive playoff favorite.

Play Milwaukee to -210 as a free play only.