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Alex Bowman has put himself in position to control this matchup right from the start. He comfortably qualified 12th, earning a solid spot on the grid, while Austin Cindric struggled and will line up deep in the field in 23rd.

This weekend marks NASCAR’s return to Chicagoland Speedway for the first time since 2019. Bowman is the defending winner at the 1.5-mile oval from that event and has shown strong affinity for the track. Cindric, on the other hand, has never competed in a Cup Series car here and has a well-documented history of struggling on intermediate tracks. In his last 24 starts on 1.5-mile ovals, Cindric has managed just six top-15 finishes.

Bowman entered the playoffs as the lowest seed but delivered the biggest upset of the opening round by taking out regular-season standout Tyler Reddick. That momentum, combined with his qualifying speed and proven track record at Chicagoland, gives the No. 48 team a clear statistical edge in this head-to-head.

Recommendation: Take Alex Bowman over Austin Cindric -115

Bowman has transitioned from a longshot to a pick-’em in this spot. Lay the juice on the veteran with the superior speed, experience, and matchup advantage.

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