SUPER BOWL BEST BET ~ 7-2 RECORD LAST 6 SUPER BOWLS!

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Jaxon Smith-Njigba To Win Super Bowl LX MVP (+550)

In terms of a "longshot" Super Bowl bet, I believe this is one worth making.

JSN is currently priced to have a 7-reception, 95-yard performance. If you like the Seahawks' top WR to go Over those numbers, then this is a bet I would definitely make. If he were to go Over those respective numbers, then JSN would certainly be in the MVP discussion.

Only the two QBs have shorter odds. But at this price, JSN is a good value in this market.

The PLAY: Charlotte Hornets -125

This Hornets team is for real. They've won eight straight, which is the longest such streak the franchise has seen in more than a quarter century. While that only has them 10th in the Eastern Conference standings, barely qualifying for the Play-In Tournament, the Hornets are tied for the East's fifth best YTD point differential.

Atlanta is 1.5 games ahead of Charlotte in the standings, but has a negative YTD point differential and roster upheaval. Newcomer Jock Landale did tie a career-high with 26 points in his Hawks' debut Thursday against Utah. But the team needed a last-second jumper from Nickeil Alexander-Walker to just to win that game. The Hawks were trailing entering the 4Q. Keep in mind the Jazz are one of the worst teams in the league.

Charlotte being favored here feels right to me. I'd play them on the ML. They've developed into one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league (third in makes, sixth in percentage). With the starting five of Ball, Bridges, Diabate, Knueppel and Milller, the team's record is 14-1 SU. Over the L15 games, the team's net rating is +11.7 with the #1 offense. For context, that net rating is close to what OKC has posted this season.

The PLAY: Louisiana Tech +3.5 (-110)

3% Louisiana Tech (3:00 ET): If you recall, I got involved in La Tech’s last game, which (for them) ended up being a 72-63 loss to New Mexico State as 1.5-point home favorites. However, I bet Under 137.5. That was a winner (though it got a little too close for comfort at the end!) La Tech has now lost two straight games in which its defense has let them down in the second half. Wednesday against New Mexico State, the Bulldogs surrendered 41 2H points. That followed an 83-67 loss at Sam Houston last Saturday in which they allowed 49 2H points. This afternoon, in Ruston, the Bulldogs will look to avenge that defeat.

In the analysis for NMSU-La Tech, I noted how La Tech has generally been a sound team defensively and the 2H effort we’d seen the previous game vs. Sam Houston was “atypical.” So it was a bit shocking to see the same thing happen to the Bulldogs B2B games. That said, I’ll double down on calling for a better 40 minutes of defense here as the team still ranks top five in the country in points allowed, giving up just 62.7 per game! The fact they allowed 83 to Sam Houston last Saturday was mainly owed to the Bearkats spending a lot of time at the FT line (24 of 36). They are not a team that usually gets anywhere close to that number of attempts from the charity stripe (average 21 per game for the year).

La Tech did a great job in the first meeting limiting Sam Houston to just five made three-pointers. Now, what we are going to need here is an improved effort at the offensive end from the Bulldogs. I won’t lie to you and say this is a good offensive team. But they should definitely improve on the shooting numbers we saw vs. New Mexico State when they finished 34% from the field (including 7 of 27 from three) not to mention 56% from the FT line (14 of 25). I know it can be scary to fade a “hot” team like Sam Houston (who has won seven in a row). But this is a rare instance of the Bearkats being favored to win on the road (only the second time all season) and prior to these B2B losses, La Tech had covered four straight - all as underdogs (three outright wins). 3% Louisiana Tech (Play to +3)