Londrina vs Nautico
Brazil Serie B, Wednesday, 5pm ET
Play: Penalty Kick Awarded
Odds at Time of Release: +174 FanDuel
Line Parameter: Good to +150
Final Match Day in the Serie B in Brazil, and we have an indifferent match between the already relegated Londrina, and Nautico who also have nothing to play for. Now here's the interesting part: indifferent matches involving already relegated teams in the Serie B almost always produce a lot of cards, often red cards, penalty kicks and own goals.
This is not random. Brazil is notorious for match fixing, and these players are looking to get paid - one way or the other. Here's a somewhat deep dive on what has happened in the last match day of recent years.
2025:
Villa Nova vs Volta Redonda: 12 cards (2 red cards)
Athetlci Club vs Paysandú: 8 cards (1 red)
Amazonas vs Coritiba: 8 cards
2024:
Avai vs Ponte Preta: 7 cards
Ituano vs Amazonas: 5 cards (1 red), 1 own goal
America MG vs Brusque: 1 card, 1 penalty kick
2023:
ABC vs Vila Nova: 9 cards, 1 own goal, 1 penalty kick
2022:
Nautico vs Ponte Preta: 6 cards, 1 penalty kick
Operario vs Novorizontino: 2 cards, 1 penalty kick
2021:
CSA vs Brasil de Pelotas: 5 cards, 2 penalty kicks
Londrina's L/2 matches had 6 and 5 cards respectively, and one of two matches had a penalty kick and an own goal.
Nautico's L/2 matches had 6 and 8 cards.
This is just a hunch bet and, as stated before, these players know that they are going down to the third division, money will be scarce and they are looking to get paid. Weird stuff always happen in these seemingly indifferent matches, odds are not widely available but here's what I found:
Over 4.5 Cards (-125 B365)
Penalty Kick Awarded (+174 FanDuel)
Starting with a 1* bet on Penalty Kick Awarded (+174 FanDuel) and also considering adding the Over 4.5 Cards (-125 B365).
Take 1* on Penalty Kick Awarded (+174 FD), good to +150
