OFI Crete vs Leverkusen
Europa League, Thursday, 12:45pm ET
Play: OFI Crete +2
Odds at Time of Release: -106
Line Parameter: Line good to -120
Books are sleeping on OFI Crete, who are +1100 underdogs at home, the Draw at a massive +661 and Leverkusen are -483 favourites on the road, with the Spread at 2 and the Total at 3.5. I think the odds are greatly affected by the fact that people know Leverkusen and have no idea who OFI Crete is.
OFI Crete won the Greek Cup and the Greek Super Cup last season and are a team that can play pretty good defense, but also quite sneaky on the offense. They already stunned a Bundesliga side, beating Hoffenheim by 2-0 in this venue in Match Day 1, before losing to Rennes on the road by 2-1 due to a late goal.
OFI Crete are strong at home this season (W5 D1 L0), keeping 4 clean sheets in that span, and scoring 2+ goals in all 6. They can definitely score a goal against Leverkusen's bad defense, and if that's the case, Leverkusen would need to score 4 goals to cover this spread.
Leverkusen might be coming off a 4-0 away at Lech Poznan but that was a wild game with two injuries and two penalty kicks in the first half alone that really messed up the game plan. They are generally NOT good defensively on the road, having conceded three goals to Mainz (won by 4-3), 2 goals to Augsburg (2-2 draw) and 3 goals to Elversberg (lost 3-2).
I'm not ruling out a Leverkusen win here, I just don't think it's easy to win by 3 goals or more and to cover the -2 spread. Going the other way here, give me the home side with +2
Take 2* on OFI Crete +2 (-106), line good to -120
