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Last updated Mar 3, 5:43 PM EST
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MOT | (6115) Taylor Gray at (6116) Brandon Jones | 7:52pm EST - Mar 7/2026 |
The PLAY: Brandon Jones 100
Betting Pick: Brandon Jones +100 (Rivers) over Taylor Gray in this head-to-head matchup
This is a strong value play on Brandon Jones against his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Taylor Gray. While Gray earned the pole and looked fast in practice with excellent long-run speed, the market still offers Jones at even money, which undervalues his proven edge at Phoenix.
Fair value assessment
Models and sharp lines price this head-to-head around Jones -115 or better, making +100 a clear overlay. Gray is deservedly the favorite off the pole and recent momentum, but the gap shouldn't be this wide given the identical equipment and Jones' track history.
Why Brandon Jones stands out here
Proven Phoenix performer — Jones has a win at Phoenix (2020 in Xfinity) and boasts 12 career top-10 finishes at the track across series. He consistently runs well on the flat, tire-wearing mile where experience matters.
Experience advantage — Gray, while talented and improving rapidly, has far fewer laps and starts at Phoenix compared to Jones. In high-stakes, traffic-heavy racing like this, veteran savvy often separates contenders from pretenders.
Race style fit — Jones excels at advancing positions and maintaining track position through the final stage. He rarely fades late and is adept at managing tires and restarts—key factors at Phoenix where long green-flag runs test consistency.
Equal equipment — Both drivers pilot JGR Toyotas, so the difference comes down to driver skill, setup nuance, and track familiarity. We're backing the guy with significantly more laps and success here.
Gray's pole and practice speed make him the chalk, but Jones at +100 offers real upside in what should be a tight intra-team battle. This is the kind of spot where veteran reliability trumps raw qualifying pace.
Take Brandon Jones +100—solid value in a matchup of teammates.
Let's cash some tickets!
Consultant Bio
Tom Macrina is your one stop handicapper excelling in all major North American sports. Tom has been building his name in the industry posting WINNING seasons in multiple sports. Lifelong sports fan, from the Philadelphia area. Specialized in market movement/contrarian handicapping. Efficient in MLB/NCAAB/NASCAR. Capping for 10+ years. He looks for every available angle to make the smartest wager. Let's cash some tickets!