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Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 (-110)

3% Milwaukee (3:10 ET): Think this is a good spot to “sell high” with Atlanta. Yes, they still are the proud owners of the NBA’s longest win streak (8 in a row), but the Hawks did fail to cover last time out as 15.5-point home favorites against Brooklyn (won 108-97) and that was a game where they had a massive edge in FT attempts. While they had covered the number in each of the previous seven victories, all but one of those here at home, there has been a huge shift in the line from when the Hawks went to Milwaukee not that long ago. While it ended up being an easy 131-113 win, the Hawks were only one-point favorites. So it’s a huge shift here laying almost double digits to the same opponent.

Now, obviously it has been a challenging season for the Bucks, who are looking more and more likely to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016. They haven’t been helping themselves much recently, dropping seven of eight - both SU and ATS. Thursday, they lost on the road to another hot team (Miami), 112-105 as 5.5-point underdogs. But, even with Giannis Antetokounmpo listed as questionable for today, I don’t think Milwaukee should be this large of an underdog. If Giannis does end up playing, then we’re getting what I feel would be a tremendous number. Regardless, the Bucks haven’t been this large a ‘dog since Feb 12th at OKC - a game they ended up winning outright (110-93) without Antetokounmpo.

Even with this recent surge, Atlanta is still only 17-16 SU at home (15-18 ATS). They average fewer points at home than on the road, and overall, they’ve outscored opponents by less than a point per game for the full season (all games). So, as hot as the Hawks have been, they’re still very much a middle of the road type team. They’re only 14-17 ATS as a favorite, winning those games by an average of 5.3 PPG. 3% Milwaukee (Play to +8)

The PLAY: Bournemouth -125

While Bournemouth have been the draw specialists in the Premier League this season, I'd be surprised if the Cherries didn't pick up all three points here. Over the L10 weeks, only four clubs in the entire EPL have picked up more points than Andoni Iraola's side, who still has an excellent shot at playing European football next season.

Burnley, on the other hand, has been staring at relegation from the start of the campaign. Since November, the Clarets have been the EPL's worst team, picking up only nine points from 20 matches with 13 losses and just one victory. That lone victory (at Crystal Palace) saw them have to rally from two goals down.

The main reason that Burnley has struggled so mightily in what is looking more and more like a "one & done" return to the top flight is that they have conceded 58 goals in 29 matches. That's the worst mark across all of Europe's "Big 5" leagues. Bournemouth, top five in the EPL when it comes to away goals, should take advantage. Also, the Cherries haven't been conceding many goals themselves (just three in the L6 matches).