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3% Freiburg (9:30 AM ET): It’s been a strong run for Freiburg as the club has qualified for Europe in four of the last five seasons. Last year, they finished 7th in the Bundesliga, two spots lower than the previous campaign. That earned Breisgau-Brasilianer a spot in the Conference League, a competition they’ve now officially qualified for after defeating Scottish side Motherwall 7-2 over two legs. More recently, we’ve seen Freiburg win their first round match in the DFB Pokal (German Cup), 5-1, against Fortuna Dusseldorf. Now it’s time to begin league play and I think it’s a favorable opening fixture with Werder Bremen on Sunday.

Werder Bremen were really close to being relegated from the Bundesliga last season. They finished 15th in the table and only three points clear of the relegation playoff spot. That’s a far cry from an 8th place finish in 2024/25. We should probably expect some improvement from the Green-Whites this season. They too won their first round DFB Pokal match (3-0 against Luneburger Hansa). But this is still a club pegged for a bottom five finish in the German top flight. They’ve not had much success in season openers recently (winless in the last four) and the win over Luneburger Hansa was only their third in the last 16 away matches, going back to last season.

So, it seems unlikely that Werder Bremen would go to the Europa Park Stadion and take all three points Sunday. Especially seeing as Freiburg are unbeaten in their last six at home with five wins. In four of those last six home matches, Freiburg have scored three or more goals. Now - just to clarify again - when betting the 3-way line, we need to avoid the draw. Well, Freiburg has owned this particular fixture, winning seven of the last eight meetings including both last season without conceding a single goal. 3% Freiburg (Play to -130)